Mens Warehouse (MW) is due to announce earnings Tuesday after the close. I believe that earnings will be better than expected and the stock will continue to go higher. My fundamental reasoning is due to the fact that they increased their dividend by 29% in January. When a company does this it is a clear indication that management expects earnings to grow for the foreseeable future. If earnings did in fact not increase, they would have to lower the dividend which is viewed as extremely bearish by investors. So, when a company raises the dividend, they should be very confident that they will be able to support that higher dividend payout.
The technical reasons are this. The 13 day moving average has crossed, and is well above the 34 day moving average which is bullish for the stock. The oscillators are in over bought territory, but I believe they could remain over bought for a little while longer before selling off. The chart has resistance at the 26.50 mark from last October's highs. The stock should most likely retest these highs. MW has tested this level many times over the past two years. In October '09, August '09, September 08', April '08 and January '08. This area is significant because it is also about where the 200 day moving average is, so a mean reversion would be likely, as is with all stocks. A testing of the 200 day moving average would be 28.19 which is where I expect the stock to go in the near term. Currently the stock is trading at 24.84 so there is still some room to make a profit. If earnings do in fact exceed expectations, which is likely, expect the stock to break through resistance and form new highs.
Monday, March 8, 2010
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Wow I think I might have too really think about this. Thanks for your awsome thoughts on the issue at hand!
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